Jonathan vs Buhari: The running mate politics

Sambo and Osinbajo

The choice of the running mate for the Peoples Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan, and the All Progressives Congress’s candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), may influence voting in the 2015 presidential election, writes LEKE BAIYEWU

The two biggest political parties in Nigeria — the ruling Peoples Democratic Party and the opposition, All Progressives Congress — have presented their candidates for the 2015 presidential election. They are President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP and a former Head of State, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) of the APC. The battle for the number one office in the country is between these two.

While a presidential aspirant emerges the candidate of a political party by winning a primary election, the vice-presidential candidate is selected or appointed as a running mate by either the candidate, the party or by a consensus reached by both.

According to political analysts, the choice of a running mate in an election should be strategic. The personality, background, affiliations and political clout of the aspirants are considered before the candidate is chosen. The analysts believe that in a political clime like Nigeria, parties will consider the tribe or ethnic nationality, education and career, religion and political antecedents of the running mate. These, they say, are factors that will get more votes for the presidential or governorship candidate.

The PDP and President Jonathan had announced Vice-President Namadi Sambo as his running mate for the 2015 presidential election after his declaration as the flag bearer of the PDP during the party’s national convention held in Abuja between December 10 and 11, this year.

On the other hand, the APC and Buhari on Wednesday announced Prof. Yemi Osinbajo as the presidential running mate of the party.

The geographical presentation of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates of both the PDP and the APC is the South-South (Jonathan)/North-West (Sambo) versus North-West (Buhari)/South-West (Osinbajo).

It took the APC five days, after Buhari had emerged as the presidential candidate, to choose his running mate. The party had held its national convention and presidential primary election between December 10 and 11, where Buhari, who beat a former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar; Governor of Kano State, Rabi’u Kwankwaso; Governor of Imo State, Rochas Okorocha; and newspaper publisher, Sam Nda-Isaiah, to the ticket.

Unlike the PDP, where Jonathan announced his running mate at the event, the APC did not do so until last Wednesday.

Records have shown that Jonathan won massively in the southern part of the country, while Buhari won massively in the northern part in the 2011 presidential election. This was despite the fact that Jonathan’s running mate was from the North, while Buhari’s running mate was from the South.

This must have been the reason why observers of the process that led to the emergence of Osinbajo as Buhari’s running mate said the APC — a conglomerate of the opposition parties that contested against Jonathan in the last election — was very careful about the selection of its vice-presidential candidate.

Contestants on the APC list were Governors of Lagos, Babatunde Fashola; Edo, Adams Oshiomhole; Rivers, Rotimi Amaechi; Imo, Rochas Okorocha. Others were Bola Tinubu and a former Governor of Ekiti State, Kayode Fayemi.

Political experts, who had weighed the options as well as the political clout of the aspirants, had looked away from Osinbajo.

The ticket PDP is presenting is Christian-Muslim, and according to analysts, the APC must have considered the fact that the current political atmosphere in the country would not allow a single religious ticket. This factor, it was learnt, worked against some of the aspirants, despite their popularity and clout.

Again, the APC was said to have considered its areas of strength and weakness in the country vote-wise. While Buhari is said to be popular in the North, Jonathan has a strong grip on the South-South and the South-East. This presumption was said to have thrown Amaechi and Oshiomhole up as top contenders.

Political pundits have however described the choice of Osinbajo as a step to secure the votes in the South-West, which is the most populous zone in the South and second most populous in the country, according the 2006 national census figures.

Also, the APC is said to be eyeing votes from members of The Redeemed Christian Church of God, said to be the biggest Pentecostal church in Nigeria, through Osinbajo, a leader of the church.

Another factor considered by the APC, according to analysts, is that Buhari is seen as a symbol of transparency and accountability and he needed a new blood in the system, with an unquestionable record, as his running mate.

While the leader of the party, Tinubu, claimed that Buhari nominated him for the job but he turned down the offer, observers of Osinbajo’s emergence as the running mate have described him as Tinubu’s eye in Buhari’s cabinet, should the APC eventually win.

The Executive Director, African Centre for Leadership, Strategy and Development, Dr. Otive Igbuzor, in his analysis, described the office of the vice-president as a very important position. According to him, two factors should determine a running mate — ability to garner more votes and the competence to perform in that position.

He said, “First, when anybody is going for elections, the first thing is to win. One of the first considerations for a running mate is somebody who can get you some votes that will enable you to win. That is why, historically, people don’t choose running mates from the regions where they come from. Whether we like it or not, politics in Africa is still influenced to a large extent by ethnic consideration.

“As citizens, we should tell candidates (and parties) to look beyond votes because we also want to look at competence. A running mate, as we have seen in the case of Umaru Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan, will automatically step into the shoes of the president if there is any challenge. A running mate must be competent to be able to assume the substantive position in case anything happens.”

Sambo, 60, was born in Zaria, Kaduna State. He had all his education in the state. He bagged a Bachelor of Science in Architecture (1976) and a master’s degree in Architecture (1978) from the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria.

As a National Youth Service Corps member, he served with the Oyo State Ministry of Works and Housing between 1978 and 1979.

When Bauchi State was created in 1976, Sambo was said to be among the first set of architects that designed various offices and staff housing schemes for government officials. It was said, also, that he supervised the upgrading of Yankari Games Reserve Holiday Resort and the Bauchi State Urban Development Board, which developed the master plan of Bauchi town and other cities in the state.

In 1986, Sambo was appointed Commissioner for Agriculture by the Kaduna State Government where he executed the World Bank-assisted Kaduna Agricultural Development Project, which helped to transform the state into a major food basket of the nation.

He was later redeployed to the Kaduna State Ministry of Works, Transport and Housing in 1988, where he completed the Kaduna Metropolitan Water Supply Scheme; the World Bank-assisted First Multi-State Water Supply Project; and initiated the Kaduna State 99 Towns Electricity Project, which connected over 70 towns to the national grid.

After leaving the service of the Kaduna State Government in 1990, he consulted for the World Bank, as well as Federal and State Governments. He also served in different capacities in the private sector, both as an employee and employer.

Sambo was elected the Executive Governor of Kaduna State in 2007. He became the Vice-President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2010, after Jonathan, the then Vice-President, was sworn in as President to succeed the late Umaru Yar’Adua.

Sambo contested as the running mate of Jonathan in the 2011 presidential election, which they won. He had been chosen again as Jonathan’s running mate in the 2015 election.

Buhari’s running mate, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, has been described as being more of a technocrat and religious leader than a politician. Although he was in government and held public offices for some time, he is still regarded as a green greenhorn in politics. However, he has influential people around him.

Osinbajo, 57, is said to be a close associate of Tinubu, who is widely regarded as a kingmaker in APC.

The eminent lawyer is a senior pastor of the RCCG. He is the ‘Pastor in Charge’ of Olive Tree House of Prayer for All Nations, Banana Island, Lagos branch of the church. He is also said to be very close to the General Overseer of the RCCG, Pastor Enoch Adeboye. He is also the Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Redeemer’s University, an institution owned by the RCCG.

A Professor of Law, Osinbajo, is a Senior Advocate of Nigeria. He was a Special Adviser to Bola Ajibola, the Attorney-General of the Federation between 1988 and 1992. He was the Head of the Department of Public Law at the University of Lagos between 1997 and 1999. He was later appointed Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice of Lagos State between 1999 and 2007 under Tinubu’s administration. He supervises the commercial litigation arm of the SimmonsCooper Partners, where he is a Senior Partner.

Osinbajo graduated from the University of Lagos in 1978, where he studied Law. He began his law practice at the Supreme Court of Nigeria in 1979. He had his master’s degree from the London School of Economics and Political Science in 1980. He is a member of the International Bar Association and the British Institute of International and Comparative Law. He also served in the Nigerian Body of Benchers, as well as the Council for Legal Education of Nigeria. He has more than 31 years of litigation experience.

Osinbajo is a co-founder and member of Board of the Convention on Business Integrity and Justice Research Institute Ltd. He and his wife, Oludolapo — a granddaughter of the late Youba leader, Chief Obafemi Awolowo — co-founded the Orderly Society Trust, a group that promotes Christian ethics and orderliness in 2007.

Coincidentally, Osinbajo is the second lawyer-pastor to be chosen as Buhari’s running mate. Founder of the Latter Rain Assembly, Pastor Tunde Bakare, also a lawyer, was the retired general’s running mate in 2011 presidential election on the platform of the Congress for Progressive Change.

Both Sambo and Osinbajo are expected to add electoral value to their bosses at the 2015 polls.

In his submission, a professor in the Department of Political Science, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Emmanuel Onyebuchi, pointed out that the decision by the APC to choose Buhari’s running mate from the South-West was strategic.

“It took them (APC) that much of time because they must have done some political arithmetic. Buhari, coming from the North, would not have chosen his vice from the North. Choosing a vice-presidential candidate from the South-East would not have been a wise political decision, considering the fact that the geopolitical zone is more than 90 per cent for Jonathan.

“Even though Amaechi from the South-South is a strong member of the APC, the question is how much votes will he be able to get for Buhari. The essence of choosing a running mate is to choose from an area where you are likely to muster enough political support in terms of voting. It would not have been politically wise to choose him.

“The option he had was to choose from the South-West, believing that he is going to get the needed votes in the election.”